S&P 500 just saw its first 'golden cross' in more than 2 years. Here's what comes next.
The positive technical indicator suggests momentum is building in bulls’ favor.
The S&P 500 is kicking off the second half of 2025 in style.
For the first time in more than two years, the benchmark index tallied a bullish “golden cross” on Tuesday. It was just the latest milestone for a recovery that has already earned a spot in the market record books.
Like its more downcast sibling, the “death cross,” the golden cross is a popular indicator used by technical analysts as a gauge of momentum. It triggers when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. The S&P 500 hadn’t seen a golden cross since Feb. 2, 2023, according to Dow Jones Market Data, during the early days of the current bull market. The index has gained more than 48% since then, FactSet data showed.
To be sure, Tuesday’s golden cross isn’t the first bullish technical signal to emerge since U.S. stocks began their journey back from April’s post-“liberation day”-tariff lows. A rare Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator arrived in late April, just as the rebound was starting to pick up steam. Zweig breadth thrusts have a perfect record of anticipating further stock-market gains going back to at least 1982.
On Friday, the S&P 500 tallied its first record-high close since February, capping off what Dow Jones Market Data had described as the index’s fastest-ever return to record territory following a selloff of 15% or more.
“It’s definitely a healthy sign for the market,” said Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, about Tuesday‘s golden cross. “Put that together with broadening participation and breadth, and we’re setting up for a strong second half of the year.”
History shows golden crosses have reliably presaged further gains, according to Dow Jones data. After a golden cross, the S&P 500 was higher one year later more than 71% of the time, with an average one-year return of more than 10%, according to data going back to 1928. By comparison, the average 12-month return for the index during any 12-month period since 1928 has been about 8%.
Other notable golden crosses have graced the stock market recently. The Nasdaq Composite tallied one on Monday, while shares of AI darling Nvidia Corp saw a golden cross on Friday, Dow Jones data showed.
Piper Sandler’s Johnson also pointed out that small- and midcap stocks have started to pick up recently, helping the rally to broaden out a bit in yet another sign that stocks are developing in a healthy direction. Johnson said he expects the S&P 500 to finish 2025 at around 6,600.
To be sure, there have also been some signs recently that stocks could be due for a pullback. MarketWatch’s Mark Hulbert pointed out that the gold-platinum price ratio, a short-term market-timing indicator with an impressive track record, has just turned bearish.
U.S. stocks were mixed on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 finishing slightly lower after logging back-to-back record closing highs. The Nasdaq Composite ended in the red as well, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 both advanced.
Ken Jimenez and Tomi Kilgore contributed reporting. Article first reported on "Market Watch" on July 1st, 2025.